Warsh's Second Press Conference: Two Levers, One Live Session

Fed funds futures say Wednesday is a non-event. Just three basis points of movement.

That number sounds small. But it's not telling the truth.

Wednesday's decision only affects two of the 31 days that price into the July contract. Almost the whole month is already locked in. So that three-point number isn't really about Wednesday at all.

The real story is further out. Look at the September and December contracts. A few weeks ago, traders saw about a 1-in-10 chance of a quarter-point rate cut. Now they see closer to 37%.

That's a big jump. And it's the part most people are missing.

Kevin Warsh takes questions at 2:30pm ET Wednesday. He's said before that the Fed doesn't have to treat its balance sheet and its interest rate as one tool. He treats them as two separate levers. That changes how you should think about this meeting. It's not just "hike or hold."

So there are two things the market is getting wrong right now. One live session to help you trade both.

Join Mark Sebastian and Garrett Baldwin tomorrow at 2:15pm ET where they'll trade the reaction, not the headline. That means watching IWM, UUP, TLT, and GLD — and figuring out which lever Warsh pulls first.

Join the room here: https://vip.optionpit.com/room/op-live